Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Potential Daesh/ISIL/ISIS Backlash

I've been wondering what form a backlash from Daesh might take after our (Iraq, US, et al) recent assault on Mosul. Clearly they like the idea of the terrorist attack against innocent non-combatants because they can't win except against unarmed vulnerable civilians.

I suspect they've been plotting for some time, perhaps over a year, to pull off an attack bigger than the ones we've already seen. The weaker target in Paris isn't available, so they will be looking at the United States or maybe the U.K. or Germany. Since Pres. Obama has made it an American priority to destroy them, they will probably attack America and perhaps Pres. Obama in particular. They aren't bright enough to realize we are not so dependent on one person so that our assault on them would continue in any event. We won't stop until they're destroyed and their supposed ideology with them. It's not Islam, just sick psychopathic violence.

Let's say for arguments sake that they have people here in America already. Our national security team might know if that's true. I don't. But, it's pretty certain they could have people in Europe and the last leap to America isn't the easiest. But, let's say they're here. What resources would they have? What manpower, transportation, safe houses, money, weaponry, explosives would they have? Where could they keep these things? I think they would be distributed to avoid attention. That means they have to have quite a few people and communications for coordination. That's something which might be spotted.

Assume the worst: that they have all they need to do a lot of damage. What would their target be? I don't think they would target New York City, as al Qaeda did. That's been done and now they're worried about Washington. I think they would likely target the White House, some public event, perhaps an inaugural event or earlier. How could they get through security? As usual they would pick the soft target and easiest safest routes. So, before inauguration day they might find a place and path to it which is relatively safe. These aren't people looking to survive, so an exit path isn't something they (the weaponized persons) need. Frankly, Washington would seem to be a pretty easy target in general. But, how about events with lots of people? How soft are those targets? I suppose it depends a lot on whether federal officials are there or just lots of civilians.

How would we identify the threat and block it? A lot depends upon what kind of attack they use. Stopping a sniper is a lot different than stopping a truck bomb. I think our security people are expert at this kind of thing if they know where and what and when they're going to face a threat.

There's the overview. The devil is in the details and whether our security people (from a cop on the beat to the president) can find enough information and put it together to know what the target could be, when an attack might occur, and where; then create a plan to stop the attack and kill the attackers. It's a lot to expect, but work like this has to be done for us to stay safe.

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