Tuesday, November 22, 2022

The War in Ukraine

I have several suggestions and observations about the war in Ukraine.


1. Pres. Zelensky is a war leader and may not realize, but should certainly be reminded, that he has resources limited by forces beyond his control. This may even include the support of a war-weary citizenry.

2. As the war continues into winter it isn't so clear how it will proceed or how long it will take, though it is clear today that Ukraine should be able to win.

3. Russia will be loathe to end the war with the loss of Crimea. How long would that part of the war take and can Ukraine withstand war for that long? This is an unknown factor.

4. If the West were to reduce or cease support, then Ukraine would be in great danger and the war might take on a different dimension that nobody today wants.

 

Time for consideration of a shorter path to the end of this war

It's time for all the parties to consider another way to continue. I will suggest such a path. It begins with Pres. Zelensky offering to negotiate with Russia, but not with Putin (or his administration). If Russia accepts then here are suggested terms for the war to end. Russia and Ukraine agree to a cease fire during which Russia will remove its military from Ukraine, except Crimea. If this first step is begun successfully then both parties will have time to recover from the direct effects of the war. The negotiations would continue with Ukraine announcing that they will accept continued Russian occupation of Crimea under a leasing agreement. Negotiations on the leasing of Crimea and the return of any Ukrainian citizens from Russia to Ukraine would then begin. Both parties want these things, so presumably it might happen in a short period of time. Monies which Ukraine can receive from this leasing of Crimea would be welcomed in their rebuilding work. Once it is settled that there will be peace in exchange for continued use of Crimea, Russia must make the next step forward by announcing the retirement of Pres. Putin and his administration. This is key before negotiations involving reparation payments from Russia to Ukraine can be done. If the world were a more perfect place, Pres. Putin would be charged with War Crimes, but this appears not to be possible. Ukraine must accept that fact and simply work toward recovery of their country, restoration of it to good working order and in time normality.

This state of affairs: peace, reparations to Ukraine, retirement of Putin, continued Russian presence in Crimea in exchange for rent, these could have existed before the war and these remain necessary today.

If there are other factors which remain unknown to me, then they would be added to the negotiations where possible.

This framework is simple, but everyone knows that implementing it would not be as easy. Achieving the aim of secure nations must remain in mind.