Sunday, January 29, 2017

Republicans Voted for Trump

Donald J. Trump's first week in office has been stormy.


His latest is the attempt to ban Muslims from a handful of middle-eastern countries.


Many people are upset about the 'ban'.

“But I have a valid visa:” An Iranian researcher barred from flying to US for new job - Vox

Mo Farah, banned from the USA: 'Donald Trump seems to have made me an alien' - Business Insider

A petition calling for Trump to be banned from visiting the UK has already got over 250,000 signatures

Merkel reminds Trump of Geneva Convention's refugee policy: reports


But, some so-called Conservatives don't see a problem.

Giuliani: Trump asked me how to do a Muslim ban 'legally'

3.7K Politics A Texas Mosque Just Burnt To The Ground, Hours After Trump’s Muslim Ban Welcome to Trump's America.

'It's working out very nicely': Trump defends refugee ban as protests erupt


But then, these are the same people who criticized Hillary Clinton's use of a private e-mail server.

 Lock Him Up: Trump's White House Is Using a Private Email Server


They also said Hillary was too buddy-buddy with Vladimir Putin.

Donald Trump was bailed out of bankruptcy by Russia crime bosses

Trump SoHo and the Russian Mafia: Follow the Money


They're the same people who said 3 to 5 million votes were illegally cast for Hillary.

Trump's "Voter Fraud": Tiffany Trump, Bannon & Mnuchin all Registered to Vote in Two States


Our "special relationship" with the United Kingdom is in some danger.

A petition calling for Trump to be banned from visiting the UK has already got over 250,000 signatures  Once a certain number of signatures are on the petition, the UK Parliament has to debate the issue.


We don't have a "vote of confidence" in our political system (as the Brits do), but Trump's poll numbers for approval are dropping fast. He is in a race with Richard Nixon for the most reviled president in history and I never thought that could be possible after George W. Bush. Will he cross the impeachment finish line before Nixon? Stay tuned.



Saturday, January 28, 2017

ACA

Republicans want to repeal the ACA, but they don't have a good alternative. I'll suggest a way to get past this.

Earlier I suggested this be done over (at least) a six month period. If Republicans want to do it faster, so they can focus on tax reform (and infrastructure) legislation, then for speed the ACA fix has to be done primarily by Democrats with little input from the Republicans.

Democrats can write the legislation to achieve a couple of significant improvements and to fix any smaller problems. This should be handed to the Republicans for a once-over and then back to the Democrats for final changes. It's a package deal: no amendments, all or nothing.

Then the legislation should be passed by voice votes in House and Senate. This could be done any day and time. Nobody has to have their vote recorded to take credit or blame. It will simply be done and done. If Trump should veto this bill, then it would simply be overridden by Congress in the same way the bill is originally passed (quietly). Each party can decide for themselves how to handle the after-effects.

Structural changes the Dem legislation should include:

    interstate healthcare insurance sales, regulated by the federal government to prevent a "race to the bottom";
    requirement that each state have expanded Medicaid to offer subsidies to their citizens;
    requirement that each state have an exchange, with some funding or other assistance from the federal government for poorer states;
    a reduction or elimination of the mandate tax/penalty

If other significant changes are required they will be run past the Republicans before going into the legislation. For speed there should only be one chance to consider whether a suggested change is included (and then when the legislation is ready, one once-over of ths entire package before voting). This might enable passage within a month. It depends upon the difficulty of writing the legislation.

Democrats realize the Republicans are in the driver's seat, but we want to improve the ACA. Perhaps this method is a win-win.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Lock 'Em Up



E-Mail Servers:

During the 2016 presidential campaign, the Republicans yelled "Lock her up!" to express their feelings about Hillary Clinton and her use of a private e-mail server and (allegedly) sending classified documents via that e-mail server. Well, now the tables have turned a bit. It seems some White House Republicans are using the Republican National Committee's (private) e-mail server instead of the official federal government system. Lock 'em up!

Lock Him Up: Trump's White House Is Using a Private Email Server



Illegal Votes:

Trump has argued recently that 3 to 5 million illegal votes were cast for Clinton and now he is going to have it investigated. Democrats welcome that investigation and we are happy to report that already we have found some cheaters -- people who are registered to vote in more than one place. Actually, though Trump claims dead people are voting and some people are voting in more than one place, it isn't illegal to be registered in more than one place, only to vote more than once. But, per Trump's claim we now know his own advisor Steve Bannon was registered (until yesterday after Trump's announcement) in two states and that Trump's daughter Tiffany is still registered in two states. Lock 'em up!

Trump's "Voter Fraud": Tiffany Trump, Bannon & Mnuchin all Registered to Vote in Two States



Russian Hackers Become Traitors:

Perhaps Trump could take a lead from Vladimir Putin, who has recently had some of his own operatives arrested for treason. Those charged were involved with hacking the Democratic National Committee e-mail system.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/russian-spy-who-allegedly-oversaw-hacking-arrested-for-treason


Lock 'Em Up -- for the good of America.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Improving the ACA (with small update)

I'm not interested in bailing-out the Republicans who are strangling on their own incompetence with regard to the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare), but it does need improving. So, I'm going to suggest a path forward, in hopes there is enough capacity in the Congress and our new president to do something useful.

First, discover the consensus set of most important things about our current ACA which are broken. It could be as few as 3 things or it may be a dozen. Whatever the experts know is broken, those are the things which should be discussed now.

Second, Democrats should consider ways to help the program bend toward the things the people in red states say they need and away from what they hate. For example, if they don't like the individual tax, then do away with it and let another tax stream pay for it. If interstate healthcare tax sales require federal law changes, then accommodate that to bring a greater range of products to all states (probably the smaller population states require the most help with this).  If the amount of aid states get under the Medicaid program is too low, then increase that.

Small update: Since the mandate is very unpopular it should be reconsidered, but require all states to open exchanges so their people can partake if they like.

Review all the issues.

Clearly there are issues which have been disputed since the plan's beginning, but there are also issues which have arisen since it's activation and those all need to be fixed or improved.

Once Congress has the important ideas agreed to, then write a bipartisan amendment (or set of amendments) and pass it.

I know this sounds idealistic and simplistic, but sometimes that is what Congress requires to get moving.

The catch? In exchange for this cooperation the Republicans have to endorse the final product and perhaps rename it to put an end to the public's negative reaction to the nickname "Obamacare".

So far the idea of having two or three different kinds of program which each state can choose isn't gaining support. It's too complicated and leaves me wondering what would happen to the parts of the ACA which are not state-based, but bind the entire healthcare industry.

Before anyone gets excited, I suggest this approach should take at least six months (minimum), so the discussion among the experts (in healthcare) and the politicians and the CBO can reach sound long-lasting agreements. No hurry, better results.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Big Fat Ugly Bubbles


Does this growing stock market make me look fat?


On BusinessInsider.com an article about financial market bubbles drew my attention. In it there is an interesting quote from Carl Icahn, special advisor to Trump.

http://www.businessinsider.com/will-president-trump-prick-the-big-fat-ugly-bubble-2017-1


     In a recent interview on CNBC, Icahn echoed his concerns once again:
Most telling is how Icahn ended the interview, unprompted. "If you're asking me am I concerned about the market on the short term. Yeah I'm concerned about it," he said. "You can look at so many factors here that you have to worry about. Obviously, if you get into a trade war with China, sooner or later, I think we're going to have to come to grips with that, maybe it's better to do it sooner…"

We have known since the recession of 2007-09 that the Fed's purchase of assets created a bit of a bubble in the market. But, what is different about that and a normally occurring bubble, such as George Soror might describe, is that the Fed is not an irregular unpredictable source of those bubbles. It was created as a temporary support and to help spur business activity and it should be withdrawn when the economy is going well and can afford to have the crutches removed. To call them "big fat ugly bubbles" is just impolite considering all the benefit we have received from those supports.


Trade War?

The second thing about the quote which is very important is that Icahn seems to think we need to start a trade war with China. I hope that isn't something Trump would actually consider and I hope other international trade experts would speak up and dissuade him from even discussing or considering that. It can only harm the economy.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Commentary of Trump's Inauguration Speech

In this post I take a look at the Trump inauguration speech and make a few comments. Other popular pundits have already made a few rough comments and mine are not based on theirs in any way.

Trump: "in quotes"
My Response: without quotes


"Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans and people of the world, thank you. We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people."

During his campaign he often spoke of "all our people" or something similar, but he also was very derogatory to many people and groups. Democrats do not trust him when he says "all our people". We interpret that to mean all the people who supported Trump, including members of the KKK, white supremacists, peope who hate Pres. Obama for his skin color, and many who simply hate Democrats for standing in their way.


 "Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for many, many years to come. We will face challenges. We will confront hardships. But we will get the job done."

Republicans have made it clear and Trump seems to be of the same mind, that the word "together" applies only to them. They have no interest in hearing the complaints or objections of Democrats. That has already been made clear by the confirmation votes on some of Trump's cabinet-level nominees who have important problems (of various kinds). So, once again, we do not believe him when he says "together".

It is ludicrous to believe "we" will determine the course of"..."the world". We do not rule or control the entire world. Our role as Americans is also often a response to the rest of the world.


"Every four years we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power.
And we are grateful to President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition.
They have been magnificent.
Thank you."


After the years of attack, it is amazing to hear this praise -- such hypocrisy.


"Today's ceremony, however, has a very special meaning because today we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, D.C., and giving it back to you, the people."

The implication here is that when the Democrats had the presidency, the government was NOT in the hands of "the people". And, the way Trump savaged Pres. Obama over the last eight years indicates, he didn't believe his presidency was legitimate. With the cabinet appointments Trump has made it seems clear to Democrats today that it is Trump who has taken the presidency (and with his help the Senate) away from the majority of the voters who wanted Democrats to control the presidency and the Senate and handed it to elite rich people who in no way reflect the views of the typical American voters.


"For too long, a small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have bore the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered but the jobs left and the factories closed."

To be correct English, shouldn't it say that the "people have borne the costs"?

I wouldn't say a "small group in our nation's capital has reaped the rewards of government" so much as a small elite of rich people around our nation has repeated the financial rewards of our nation. I wonder what he means by the "rewards of government". Does he believe that power in government entitles one to the "spoils of war"?

It would be nice if he actually cared that "politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed." Democrats have been making that point for years and the Republicans have heartlessly ignored it. During the campaign the Republicans pinned NAFTA on Hillary Clinton and simply tossed aside Republican involvement in changing laws which enabled companies to offshore jobs. It was conveniently ignored that during the Obama administration legislation was advanced to change that tax law, but Republicans blocked it from becoming law.


"The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation's capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land."

It is truly difficult to know who he thinks of when he says "establishment". I think of the rich and the Republicans who allowed the mortgage industry melt-down and said of the car companies, let them fail. On the other hand, I do think of many of Pres. Obama's victories as being the victories for all Americans: saving the economy, healthcare reform, a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia, ending the Al Qaeda threat to America, and many others.


"That all changes starting right here and right now, because this moment is your moment."

If those kinds of victories end now, then what will be the goals of the Trump administration. What kinds of things will he consider "victories for the citizens of our country".


"It belongs to you.

It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America."

This is your day.

This is your celebration."


I didn't watch, so it clearly isn't for me.


"And this, the United States of America, is your country.

What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people."


If he believed this notion of "majority rule" he would step aside and let Hillary Clinton be President. Clearly he has no idea what he is saying.


"January 20th, 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again."

Again he is implying that when a Democrat is president that "the people" are not sovereign. Maybe he has forgotten that the Congress has been controlled by Republicans for a few years now. Is he saying they are not "the people"?


"The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. Everyone is listening to you now. You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before."

Here he seems to be referring to something akin to Richard Nixon's "silent majority", but in the election Clinton won about 3 million more votes than Trump.


"At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families and good jobs for themselves.

These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public."

These goals of good schools, safe neighborhoods and more jobs are goals of Democrats, so I have to wonder what he is suggesting. Does he believe Democrats have opposed efforts to achieve those goals? Remember that it has been Republicans who put forward zero jobs bills and opposed every attempt at jobs creation legislation Democrats proposed during the Obama administration. It is Republicans who oppose better background checks or gun safety to make neighborhoods safer. And, with their attempt to destroy teacher's unions and opposition to Common Core standards, it is Republicans who are trying to destroy the public schools.


"But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists.

Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation.

An education system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge."


Pure and utter drivel. What educational system is "flush with cash"? Is this the school system where teachers buy supplies out of their own pockets, where schools are rotting? The man is ill informed or delusional.


"And the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here and stops right now."

If police officers would cease shooting down unarmed people in the street the carnage would stop sooner, but Trump supports the police -- right or wrong. Democrats are going to aim for legalization of marijuana because it has been used as a political weapon by Republicans to prevent Blacks from voting and marijuana is not a major problem in people's lives except that it accounts for approximately one-third of all our prisoners in over-crowded prisons and (one would assume) a very large expense which might better be applied to helping addicts of opioids to kick their habits. I suspect Trump's "law and order" stance and his selection of Senator Sessions of Alabama to be Attorney General will not be friendly to the states which have legalized marijuana sale.


"We are one nation, and their pain is our pain."

Tell that to the Trump selection for Treasury Secretary, who gained tremendously while some people experienced great pain losing their homes during the mortgage collapse.


"Their dreams are our dreams, and their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home and one glorious destiny."

Trump's disgusting mocking of the disabled, women, non-white ethnic groups, and many others during the campaign do not feel Trump's dreams are their dreams.


"The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.

For many decades we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military."

Trump's own products are made in foreign countries. How can we trust him to change the laws? How can we trust the Republicans who created these laws to change them?

We have assisted other nations to have stronger armies. We do that in part, so that we don't have to send our own sons and daughters to fight. We do that to have a larger array of partner nations working with us to achieve important goals. We are stronger together and paying an economic price for that is small.

His claim that there has been a "very sad depletion of our military" is bizarre. Our military today is the strongest the world has ever known.


"We've defended other nations' borders while refusing to defend our own."

We have defended other nations' borders to maintain our commitments and alliances which benefit us. We do not do this just to waste treasure and lives. Our choice of how much to spend on 'defending' this or that border or for spending on this or that social program or the military is entirely the choice of the House of Representatives. No president has a big say in that.


"And we've spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America's infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay."


We have spent a lot overseas, but where he gets the "trillions and trillions of dollars" idea is unknown. We have allowed our infrastructure to fall into disrepair and decay. The reason is that when Pres. Obama and Congressional Democrats put forward infrastructure bills, the Republicans blocked them.


"We've made other countries rich while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon."


Unless he is referring to the George W. Bush years, this is (again) a bizarre statement. Our nation's GDP is the highest it has ever been. Our stock market is the envy of the world. Our productivity, innovation, output, and influence in the world of trade, is unmatched and unrivaled. America has been "the indispensable nation".


"One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind."

Democrats have been concerned with this, but Republicans not so much. Trump is a Republican and we worry he will simply use government for personal gain and will leave the rest of America to fend for itself.


"The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world. But that is the past, and now we are looking only to the future."

I don't know why he says the "wealth" has been "redistributed all across the world". Clearly the rich in America have been the primary beneficiaries. Either way the economics idea which led to that was Republican and Republicans have continued to receive sufficient support to control Congress. What can Trump or Democrats do to end that nonsensical idea that market will regulate themselves if the people who get hurt continue to vote for the muggers.


"We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land."

From "this day forward" (for a few years) Trump will be president, but it takes all three branches of our government for governance of our nation to occur.


"From this day forward, it's going to be only America first, America first."

America First is eerily similar to Hitler's Germany First slogan. It has been said that Trump read Hitler regularly. Does he aim for some reliving of that nightmare? What are the odds that at this time, with this Hitler-like leader, the opposition leader in the US Senate would be a Jew, Charles Schumer, also from New York?


"Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs."

He is apparently claiming that this hasn't been the goal of government and politicians. How bizarre. I wonder what he means by "other countries making our product".


"Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never ever let you down."

Historically protectionism has been a failure when our trading partners could afford to reciprocate. Most of our trading partners today can and will reciprocate. Trade protectionism is not a winning idea today.


"America will start winning again, winning like never before.

We will bring back our jobs.

We will bring back our borders.

We will bring back our wealth, and we will bring back our dreams."


These kinds of statements have led many people to support him, but the world is a changing place and simply trying to return to some prior time isn't the solution. Manufacturing and agriculture are done today with many fewer workers than fifty (50) years ago. We need many different thing and in diversity we will find a more stable economy as well as steadier growth. That means we should promote new kinds of industry (such as clean energy) and research universities and the national laboratories and corporate R&D (with better tax code) and small businesses.


"We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels and railways all across our wonderful nation."

Already Republicans have said they do not want to spend the kind of money Trump has proposed. Democrats might work with him if the infrastructure spending is satisfactory, but Republicans have said they will not. Of course, they may change their minds if they think it would cost them politically. Naturally, in the tradition of Reagan and Bush Republicans, Trump wants lower taxes. Combining the higher spending and lower taxes would raise the deficit unnecessarily and Democrats could not support that.


"We will get our people off of welfare and back to work, rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor."

Years ago Pres. Clinton signed a bill into law to push people off welfare and get them back to work, but then he had a growing economy to absorb that labor. Today's economy is growing, but at a much slower rate. In this economy it would be sadistic and costly to push people off welfare.


"We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American."

That kind of trade protectionism and hiring policy is virtually impossible today. Products are designed in one place, raw materials come from others, manufacturing of parts in another and final assembly in another. How do you know what is "American"? We have already seen one state (at least) try to do away with illegal immigrant labor and it nearly destroyed their agricultural product. Companies simply do not pay sufficient wages for an American to support an American lifestyle on the below minimum wages they pay migrant workers. We need better immigration law.


"We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first."

Everyone already knows this.


"We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example.

We will shine for everyone to follow."


Many countries would welcome this because the push to enforce Democracy on the world has made us appear as aggressors and upset many nations. I doubt he will find supporters in the Republican Congress.


We will re-enforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth."

During the campaign he said he was considering the abolishment of NATO and here he says he will "re-enforce old alliances". Is he insane or simply a liar?


"At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country we will rediscover our loyalty to each other."

This statement will irritate a lot of people who saw the election turn in his favor primarily because of his disloyalty to America and call for assistance from the Russians. Among even his supporters I doubt that "loyalty to our country" will push them toward "loyalty to each other" since they hate Democrats and people of color.


"When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice."

He is incorrect.


"The Bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when God's people live together in unity. We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly, but always pursue solidarity. When America is united, America is totally unstoppable. There should be no fear. We are protected and we will always be protected. We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God."

This is in direct contradiction to what he said during the campaign. He essentially cursed the media and protesters who did speak their minds openly. He even called for violence against some of them. The idea that he will "pursue solidarity" can only be directed at his supporters since Democrats feel no reason to support him, other than the call from President Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton, to give Trump a chance.


"Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long as it is striving. We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining but never doing anything about it.

The time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action.

Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again.

We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow."

I hope he knows we recently began a "new millennium", so it will be a while before another.

Whether he is ready to "harness the energies and technologies of tomorrow" remains to be seen. Scientific research and technological development is usually a step away from politics and will move at the speed of the scientists, but if government supports it with funding it can do more. For Trump and today's Republican-led Congress, the proof will be in the pudding.


"A new national pride will stir ourselves, lift our sights and heal our divisions. It's time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots."

His words ring very hollow after the way he spoke during the campaign.


"We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms and we all salute the same great American flag."

Not everyone enjoys the same "glorious freedoms" when millions of people are held in prison because they tend to vote Democratic and they were caught with marijuana. We now know the drug war was primarily a mechanism to remove certain people from the voting booths and they are not free. If he will end that and other kinds of voter suppression many more will be able to "enjoy the same glorious freedoms".


"And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they fill their heart with the same dreams and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty creator."

No, not all children fill their heart with the same dreams and many have no dreams at all. Many do not even believe they exist because of "the same almighty creator". America is supposed to be a place which is inclusive by not being prejudiced toward such a view. Infusing our government with religious symbology is a very bad step.


"So to all Americans in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You will never be ignored again. Your voice, your hopes and your dreams will define our American destiny. And your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way.

Together we will make America strong again, we will make America wealthy again, we will make America proud again, we will make America safe again.

And, yes, together we will make America great again."

I don't know who has been ignored. We have public elections and though many people ignore their opportunity to participate there aren't so many impediments to involvement for most people. If Trump would fight to reduce impediments to people it would be a good thing. During the campaign he benefited from impediments to some people.

His claim that America must be "made strong again" implies we have lost our greatness. That is utter boloney. His claim we are not wealthy is beyond stupidity. We are the wealthiest nation on Earth. I might have more faith he could fight to make "America safe again", were it not for Republicans in Congress who oppose regulations of possession of guns. Trump would not be president without their support and any effort on his part to regulate gun possession would immediately cost him their support.


"Thank you.

God bless you.

And God bless America."

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Trump in Russia

Tom Sullivan wrote for the Hullaballoo website: "It must be acknowledged that the information in the addendum has not been independently verified, at least as far as we know. Presumably an investigation is ongoing. According to a comprehensive article in the Guardian, the FBI sought a secret warrant under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act for permission to conduct surveillance on certain Trump associates last summer and originally was turned down. (There have been additional reports that such a warrant was granted in October.)"


Is this the first time in history that the FISA Court has NOT allowed surveillance when a warrant was requested?

Monday, January 9, 2017

Syrian Political Reformation

If Russia, working with Turkey, can achieve a good reformation of Syrian affairs, so that America is happier, I would expect some of the economic sanctions could be reduced. Each step in a direction we find more acceptable and which makes everyone (in the world) safer would be reciprocated with more reduction of sanctions.

Another issue which is important is further nuclear arms reductions. Doing that would save Russia and America money and that is something America has wanted for quite some time. Achieving that would probably also lead to sanctions reductions.

Another issue of great importance to America and the world is the problem of North Korean nuclear weapons. They continue to threaten and to build more capable weapons. The Chinese haven't been able to do much to persuade them to change, but perhaps the Russians could.

Another issue of importance to America, Western Europe and NATO is some kind of agreements on how and where NATO should put assets which will not upset Russia. This is a critical issue since Putin's plan to create a NovoRussia empire is unsettling for all the nations on its borders. An international conference (or series of them) on this might help achieve some new norms which make everyone happier.

An issue which has received a lot of attention recently is hacking. We in America know the issue is important, and we assume everyone in the world does. So, a process by which Russian, American, and technology people from all around the world could work together to improve network and computer security would be very beneficial. A part of that could be some new studies on the use and effectiveness of the Bitcoin-based technology blockchain.

Any such useful productive behaviors would be signs of improvement and would thus be followed by another. If a positive cycle of such improvements and agreements can occur, then I believe everyone would be happier.

For now the first step is completion of the Syrian plan.

What Should Russia Do?

I answered a question on the Internet about what Russia should do by 'punting'. I said I didn't know enough about Russia to say. But, I do know a bit about political systems (living in the first Democracy), so I have two cents to offer anyway.

While not an expert on Russia's affairs, I can point to historical events and to our own American political and economic systems.

First suggestion I would make is to take a couple of surveys/polls to find what the Russian people think of the current state of affairs (covering all of Russian life) and what they might want Russia to be like in a couple of decades. One part of this poll would be to discover the popularity of Russia's current political leaders, both in and out of government.

I would suggest such surveys/polls be done by experts in that field, but from another country which could be trusted to be both professional and objective.

I suspect there would be two major categories of interest: it seems there always are -- domestic economics and foreign affairs. I would expect domestic politics would also be very high on the list. Still these are quite broad categories.

Economically, Russia should focus on broadening its economy. Today it is pretty clear it's too focused on oil and natural gas. If there is a downturn or technological change away from fossil fuels Russia would pay a heavy price. They might want to discuss ways to change their economy with advisers from the west or from China (who have been making the same kinds of transitions as Russia). The Russian people are not only resilient, but capable of handling rapid changes, so I wouldn't expect that to be a problem.

Politically, the Russian soul urges violence or massive heart-break, but what they need is to do some emulation of successful Democracies around the world and find ways to be more representative of the interests of various groups. You can look at countries like India, Israel, Germany, The United Kingdom or America and see how mechanisms in our political systems create opportunities for various voices and for a balancing of interests in the lawmaking (the legislative), the law enforcement (the executive) and law adjudication (the court) using American parlance. Russians could well have very different ideas about what is appealing and they would have the advantage of "standing on our shoulders" to build a better system.

I would point out a couple of interesting situations and the consequences: in Israel they have both a Prime Minister (currently Netanyahu) and a President (currently Reuven Rivlin). Oddly, in 2009 or 2010 the popular vote went to Tzipi Livni, but she couldn't form a governing coalition, so the president gave the position to someone who could, Bibi Netanyahu. That's odd. In America we have a Senate (our legislative body is bi-cameral) which generally has a set of rules the members (senators) create. In our Constitution a majority is supposed to win votes, but in our past they created a rule called 'filibuster' which sometimes lets a minority of senators block legislation. Only recently that has been cut back and now it is only the Supreme Court of Appeals nominee vote which can be filibustered. Other positions or legislation cannot.

Each nation would have its own peculiarities. One of the biggest differences though is between a Parliamentary system and the American system where we have an independently elected president. Long ago even our senators were elected by state legislatures. We now elect them by popular vote within their states.

The point here is that a Constitution or other Primary Law Document should allow for amendment and the kinds of natural changes which occur in every society around the world.

Lastly on politics, I would suggest that the kind of political system which allows a lot of small political parties is fine for ensuring a multitude of voices in the legislative body, but it isn't as good (in my opinion) for forcing the kinds of coalition which enables a true majority to pick the national leader. I would suggest that a parliamentary system should take that into account and either limit the power of smaller parties in governing (so as to encourage more permanent coalitions) or perhaps a run-off for the presidency. In a run-off you have two votes: the first decides who the top two candidates will be and the second allows people to coalesce around one in particular.


Is America Becoming Two Big Bubbles at War?

At the Golden Globes Awards, Meryl Streep spoke about America's problem and "called out" people who are bullies and who abuse the weak. Some Republicans took offense and replied. Meghan McCain tweeted and it produced a quick back-and-forth.

http://crooksandliars.com/2017/01/kellyanne-conway-accuses-meryl-streep

http://www.politicususa.com/2017/01/09/single-tweet-meghan-mccain-gops-cruel-common-decency.html

There was a time when either party could re-position itself when it had gone too far in one direction or another. They could "pull back". Today that doesn't seem true, and the divide between the two is significant, without much overlap. While the issue isn't slavery or economics, the things which led to the Civil War, they are very important. Is this just an artifact of the Trump era? I don't think so. The Republicans were vicious in their attacks against the Clintons and other Democrats going back a long way.

This situation isn't exactly new now, but it has reached a peak because of the loss the Democrats suffered in the recent elections and the particularly vicious nature of the Trump supporters.

This is bad.


Kevin Drum has his own take on the whole "bubble" "controversy":

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/01/who-really-lives-bubble-anyway

Friday, January 6, 2017

Russian Trolls and the 2016 U.S. Election Campaign

I noticed some time ago that Conservatives on the Internet social media sites could
not spell English language words and I began to think they were all home-schooled. 
Maybe that was part of the reason, but it is now clear that there were Russians trolling
American social media and they simply hadn't learned English completely. Russians
trolls, on the other hand, know a lot of cuss words! 
 
The Russian hacking of our 2016 presidential campaigns and their involvement in the
public debate about politics and their use of fake news stories has been brazen and
unprecedented.
 
The intelligence community report, issued today 1/6/17, indicates they have done this
elsewhere in the world and to some lesser extent here, but for this election they upped
their game and picked a candidate to back: Donald Trump. They used several techniques
to try and convince our voters that Hillary wasn't healthy or male enough to be
president. Why? 
 
Apparently Vladimir Putin was afraid of Hillary, hated her for pointing out that in 2011
the Russian election wasn't kosher. It appears Donald Trump isn't the only person
worried about the validity of his election results and confirmation. 
 
In this article I'm going to provide a handful of links to websites with articles about
relevant things. Most of these are not very long, but the New York Times article and
the intelligence  community report will take a little time to read. I present them in an
order which may be of most use to the reader. We begin with a prism and a new
Russian law... 
 
 
America's NSA Prism surveillance system:
made public in 2007, but probably created earlier


In America our NSA has used a program called Prism to collect information from
telephone or digital information networks. They have to find information about
or from the enemies of America.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM_(surveillance_program)



In Russia they have something similar. They began by changing their law in 1995:


1995


SORM - Wikipedia 



The Russians decided they needed to spy on us and even to influence our thinking
on various subjects.


PRISM just gave Russia a great excuse to step up its war on social networks — Quartz



The New York Times investigated The IRA -- the Internet Research Agency


The Agency - The New York Times (longish, but thorough)




Here are a couple of other stories about the Russian Internet Trolls


Internet Research Agency 


Trolls from Olgino - Wikipedia


Invasion of the troll armies: ‘Social media where the war goes on’ 

Russia launches a 'troll factory'



Then Russia decided to become very active and created fake news stories:


Why are Russian trolls spreading online hoaxes in the U.S.?



While a few years ago Russia was not always seen as an arch-enemy, Vladimir Putin is trying his hardest to get attention -- not unlike a 5-year-old throwing a fit. Russia doesn't have the power and resources the Soviet Union has, but apparently Putin hasn't learned to down-size his ego. The trouble is that they still have nuclear bombs. How can anyone deal with such a problem "child"?
 

Jobs Jobs Jobs -- the monthly jobs report it out

It's looking up. Too bad the people voted to change direction.

Here is a story about it:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/6/1616831/-Government-reports-economy-added-156-000-new-jobs-in-December


and a couple of charts for the more visually driven viewers:






Neo, in one hand I have a blue cookie and in the other a red cupcake...

I look at carbohydrate numbers on cans, bottles and boxes at the store. I must keep it under control. Today I read an interview with an author/researcher who wants to end our use of sugar. It's interesting reading.

http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/6/14167092/gary-taubes-case-against-sugar-book

Republicans are Hiding from the Truth about Repealing Obamacare

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/5/1617370/-Ellison-R-Rules-committee-prevents-CBO-from-scoring-ACA-repeal

It isn't so easy to ignore reality. If they go ahead with a repeal there will be real-world effects and like the accused in a court case who takes bad advice from his lawyer, they will still feel the weight of Reality.

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Does Senator Mitch McConnell Realize How Silly He Sounds?

Senator McConnell specifically blocked Pres. Obama's Supreme Court nominee from being considered and now he thinks it would be a travesty for Democrats to block a nominee of Pres. Trump. Really? C'mon Mitch, you've got to be smarter than that.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mcconnell-schumer-supreme-court-response
 
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/4/1617064/-McConnell-shocked-shocked-that-Democrats-might-block-Trump-SCOTUS-nominee

Sunday, January 1, 2017

A New Year's Wish for Green Energy

Update:  Solar prepares to dislodge coal as the cheapest source of energy



I've been looking at Tesla's progress for some time and I'm still a huge fan of their work. They have recently merged with a solar panels company called SolarCity. I also have had an eye on progress in the area of energy conservation via passive housing construction. Combine these and we are on the verge of a truly huge energy revolution.

Here I have collected a handful of links to websites, articles, comparisons, and the like. With these you may become better informed of these things I've been monitoring.

These are very exciting days for the development of real products using new technologies which can make our world a better place, make our world quieter (as electric vehicles don't make so much noise), perhaps help us avoid the need for ugly power lines, and enable more people to have good quality affordable homes.

We (people in general) may not be there today, but we are making progress very quickly. Solar is getting very cheap and in nearly 60 countries is cheapest of all.

Note: I'm not suggesting investments or product purchases. That's not my place. I'm only trying to inform.


Passive Home Construction

The 10 most innovative homes of 2016 - Business Insider

Lego Pop-Up House construction in Spain - Business Insider

PopUp House | Making passive construction easy

Passive House Construction by H&H | Portland & Seattle Green Builder



Energy Generation, Storage, and Home or Business Use















Solar Battery Storage Comparison Table | Solar Quotes

Tesla Powerwall - Wikipedia

Powerwall | The Tesla Home Battery

Tesla's Powerwall 2.0: Compare prices & installers - Solar Choice

You Don’t Need a Tesla Powerwall Battery, Unless… | Ryan Taylor Architects LLC

Why Tesla’s new solar roof tiles and home battery are such a big deal | TechCrunch

 Will a Merged Tesla-SolarCity Put a Solar-Powered Battery in Every Home? | GreenBuildingAdvisor.com

Tesla Powerwall 2 has no competition – comparison with LG Resu and SonnenBatterie | Electrek



Automotive Transportation


https://www.tesla.com/   electricity powered cars


https://nikolamotor.com/   hydrogen powered trucks