Ukraine and Russia

One major concern I have with America's response to the crisis in Ukraine is that it is very very easy to recognize so many familiar situations and events that we are drawn to responding as if it were a replay of events from by-gone days. For example, Vladimir Putin is not George W. Bush and to respond to him as though he were would be a mistake. Both may act as bullies or recklessly or as overly aggressive or similar in some other ways, but that is not all Putin is and to put blinders on ourselves to only see those similarities blinds us to other things. Similarly, this Russian aggression is not Saddam Hussein's aggression against Kuwait. To claim total purity and exclaim, "This aggression shall not stand!" is to misunderstand the differences between then and now, there and here, and to ignore the mistakes of the past. Furthermore, the current Russian excitement about Ukraine is far from being similar to their invasion of Afghanistan in 1980. Recognize what exists now and don't rely on the sure-fire solutions of the past because today is a new day and may end in a new way.

There are some obvious things America can and should do without fail: support our NATO partners and require our NATO partners to support one another; support international law regarding national sovereignty; of course a major one is to "jaw jaw rather than war war", if that's possible. Beyond those there has to be some understanding of America's proper role in this situation, of the president's foreign policy, of the Russian goals, of Putin's personal goals and of limitations we all face. Rushing to war or to any solution without understanding the situation as it exists today is far too likely to result in problems.

So far the president's foreign policy has been one of peace & prosperity with tense situations being guided by and assisted by America, but in most cases requiring the participation of the peoples involved. In Libya we didn't put boots on the ground, but had Europeans and Libyan rebels involved while we provided information. In Syria we've had so much difficulty finding groups worthy of our support we haven't done as much, mostly non-lethal aid and help for Jordan to deal with refugees. America's interests are not always so directly involved that we have put our own troops in the fight. We did that in Afghanistan because it was necessary to get al Qaeda and bin Laden. We don't do that in other parts of the Middle East, though we often use drones to fight AQAP. This means our natural position wrt Ukraine and Russia is to assist the Ukrainians and others who support them with information, diplomatic efforts, non-lethal aid and economic sanctions against Russia. Of course, the degree of these efforts is variable.

Viewing this conflict as being like Vietnam and requiring massive troop involvement should require the support of the American people and today they're not even slightly interested. This isn't the Cold War era and Ukraine is not Vietnam. Viewing this as being similar to Saddam Hussein's Iraq would also be a big mistake because the Russian military, and Russia itself, is much larger and even more dangerous than Iraq's or Iran's. We don't attack Iran because it's not necessary and because militarily it would be extremely difficult to succeed. What would success against Russia look like? No, we must deal with the reality before us and not shadows of the past.

It would appear naive to ignore the secret forces behind revolutions or the Russian (supporter) instigators, but ignore them we must to have a sensible solution to the problem. As long as Americans are not secretly involved (and they should be punished if they are) and as long as we know the armed instigators are not Russians aiming to take over Ukraine there is no need to knee-jerk respond in a big military way. If Putin wants to use his army in a big way then he will have shown the world he is dangerous and would have to be stopped. Until then this is just a situation of provocation and instigation and intrigue, but without the huge dangers of all-out war.

No, without our national debt and our people's tiredness of war and all the other major issues facing us we should avoid massive involvement of our military. This doesn't mean our actions are etched in stone. They could change if the situation changes. But, the reality of today, not our memories of how things happened in the past, should inform us.