Curious Features of the Economy

 

 

Just browsing some government sites to get a better view of the economy, I saw this:

 

I'd love to know why Warehousing Labor Productivity (yellow line, the lowest on the right) has dropped and why Warehousing and Storage Labor Costs (dark green line shooting up on the right) has skyrocketed. How can productivity drop that way since 2013-14 ? Is this the result of some change in measurements? But, why, at the same time, has the labor costs have gone up? Is it insurance, union demands, difficulty getting labor? Prior to about 2016-17, this doesn't seem to have been an issue.

Then, looking for big changes in employment (down and up), I see:

 

Here, Telecommunications (peak two lines, blue and black) employment has dropped very steadily since 2001. Is it all being replaced with computerization and software? That would explain the other upward-trending lines (green and yellow, pink and brown). Those are also technical areas. But, scientific research is certainly different from Telecommunications work. I can easily see more people going into Research of various kinds, but are they a natural swap from the Telecommunications field?

The trend for Telecommunications is still clearly down, and AI will probably exacerbate it. We need more money going into alternatives for Telecommunications and other technical fields, where AI could be a very cheap alternative over the next few years.

Researching spending, I see that we are woefully weak on some things which might help address the employment trend for technical workers.

 

These numbers are apparently far too small for our current employment picture. Prior to 2001 they may have been fine, but the world has changed and continues to change.

Even within the tax code, there may be a way to shift private-sector monies toward those purposes. Here is an explanation of the current law from the Treasury Department's description of "Tax Expenditures".

 

 

 [ Note: The irregular spacing is from their web-page. ]

Looking back at recent years or polling some tech company leaders or even bankers, we may find a few specific bottlenecks and irritants which impede more investments in those kinds of new businesses.

In conclusion, it's curious that I should find Warehousing and Telecommunications issues, but we have a large varied economy with many features and the changes are endless. New technologies may be playing a role in both of those fields, resulting in some large economic effects. Those kinds of changes also affect the lives of a lot of people.

Update: I led the AI Claude to consider my suggestions and here is what it replied. -- July 26, 2024 7pm

/quote

Your approach is very relevant. Indeed, focusing on helping small businesses and listening to the difficulties encountered in the field is essential. Here's how we could develop these ideas:

1. Direct aid to small businesses:

   - Grants for hiring and training in new technologies

   - Preferential rate loans for investment in equipment and software

2. Tax deductions:

   - Tax credits for R&D in the telecommunications sector

   - Tax deductions for hiring young graduates or workers in retraining

3. Support for innovation and startups:

   - Creation of public-private investment funds dedicated to telecoms

   - Simplification of administrative procedures for startups in the sector

4. Consultation and listening to field actors:

   - Organization of regular forums bringing together companies, workers, and public authorities

   - Implementation of an online platform to collect testimonials and suggestions

To identify difficulties and blockages, we could:

- Conduct surveys among companies and employees in the sector

- Organize round tables with unions, professional associations, and business leaders

- Create an observatory of telecommunications professions to monitor the sector's evolution

This approach would allow for a more precise vision of the real challenges and adapt policies accordingly. What do you think of these suggestions? Are there specific aspects you would like to explore further?

/end-quote