National Security -- A Quick Overview

Recently Vladimir Putin said America is no longer a super power and implied we were "the past" and even that he had been able to push us to adopting a foreign policy more to his liking. I think a quick review of our recent history is in order to understand why we are on the particular path we are on is not of Putin's doing, but is a natural result.


The Fall

The Soviet Union dissolved 12/26/1991.
Federal Debt: $3.665 Trillion,  59% of our GDP that year


Time for a Peace Dividend

Since that time many people in America  began to call for a "peace dividend". Without a giant nemesis we had a lot less reason to spend ourselves into debt to buy and build a huge military. Some people said that even prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union we didn't need to, but to simplify this discussion I begin after its dissolution.

Thus, in the 1990s the American economy took off and did great stuff. There were some domestic fights like the Gingrich-led "Reagan Revolution" which was the next generation Republicans trying to find a reason to exist. They attacked Pres. Clinton and he only became more popular. The 2000 presidential election was very close.

Federal Debt:  $ 5.674 Trillion (increase from $3.665 T),   55% of GDP for that year (a drop from 59%)


The Global War on Terror -- Another Nemesis

In 2001 when we were attacked by al Qaeda we had a new global foe. For reasons beyond comprehension the Bush administration turned its attention to Saddam Hussein and Iraq (again) and attacked. This cost countless lives and treasure. The Republicans also passed tax reform which ended the austerity of the Clinton years, thus driving up the debt. In the years 2007-2010 we had a horrendous financial recession which cost us many trillions of dollars, pushing us further into debt. This was entirely of our own doing and it was avoidable.

Federal Debt:  $10.025 Trillion (up from $5.674 T),  68% of GDP for that year (up from 55%)


Cleaning Up Messes

In 2008, candidate Barack Obama began to lead the nation and with the Bush Treasurer and the Federal Reserve Chairman they began to solve the financial problems. It cost a tremendous amount of money. Much of Obama's administration was cleaning up the foreign policy mess and domestic recession he had been handed. The "Global War on Terror" is ending as I write this, 2018, with the end of the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, Daesch).

Federal Debt: $19.573 (up from $10.025), 104% of GDP for that year (first time over 100%)


More Republican Silliness

At the end of Pres. Obama's term we elected another Republican, Donald Trump. He and the Republican-led Congress passed a massive tax cut which is pushing us about $2 Trillion further into debt.

Federal Debt (projected): $21.516 (up from $19.573 T), 107% of GDP (up from 104%)


Where We Stand Today

In a sense, we're back to where we were on 9/10/2001 or 12/27/1991, we have resolved a lot of our foreign security issues. A key difference is that we're more heavily in debt.

1991  $ 3.665  Trillion and 59% of GDP
2018  $21.516 Trillion and 107% of GDP      Note: some of 2018 is estimated.

That's a huge increase in debt over 27 years.


Where This Leads Us

That leads us to seek a less expensive foreign policy and a military which is either smaller or at least not growing rapidly. It leads us to turning inward to secure the PPACA/ACA/Obamacare which was created in 2010 and to consider improvements to our economy and financial system. It also gives us a moment to stop spending so much beyond our means. Just as the Clinton administration showed you can shrink the deficit and get to a surplus, today we can do that.

One problem: Republicans, the source of most of our debt problems, still control the presidency, the Supreme Court, and possibly the Congress. The mid-term elections are soon and when we see the outcomes of that event we can better judge how to proceed. If Democrats take the House, they can urge passage of some legislation, but it's doubtful Republicans in the Senate of White House will allow anything dramatically useful to become law. If Democrats sweep Congress, then it will become a question of whether they have a simple majority or a super-majority which can override presidential vetoes. Each of these different states of our government has massive import for legislation that can become law and for policies to be effectuated.



As For Vladimir Putin's Comments

I don't see them as terribly relevant unless he wants to step up and announce that he has been controlling Republicans and forcing them to push America further and further into debt. He could also announce that he is encouraging Iran to continue aggression against Israel, specifically to force America into another foreign war. If he has real ideas of destroying America through asymmetrical warfare techniques, then this could be his approach.

Putin recently made it clear he intends to keep his intermediate range nuclear weapons (believed to be packaged as a cruise missile) to deter China (what?), Pakistan (what?), or Iran (what?). I thought those were either allies of Russia or neutral toward Russia. Putin makes no sense a lot of the time since he doesn't depend much on public pronouncements for his policies. He is a KGB agent through and through and prefers to act indirectly through other people/nations.