Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Briefly: National Security and Economics

Since World War II there has been one existential threat to America and that is the atomic bomb. We and the Soviet Union held them over one another's heads and it dominated all other policy decisions.

After the fall of the Soviet Union the nuclear threat receded and terrorism became a major issue. It certainly wasn't an existential problem, but it was significant. Now, al Qaeda and Islamic State have dissipated or disappeared and we have fewer major security issues to consider.

First, Russia and some other nations still have nuclear weapons. The "new kid on the block" is North Korea. If our hopes for them succeed, they will develop to become more like Singapore and South Korea and be relatively peaceful. Time will tell.

Next, the plans of Vladimir Putin to conquer certain European nations means America needs to help Europe become stronger and more united, so it will be less of a target for Russia.

Then, there is Israel and its neighbors. Over the course of many decades they have managed to find relative peace with their Egyptian, Jordanian, and Saudi neighbors. Iraq has changed and Syria has been ravaged by war. Only Iran stands as a major opponent. The smaller Gulf states are not major military powers. How will Iran continue and how will America and Israel dissuade them or change them to being more benign? That remains to be seen.

After those issues, the discussion has to quickly move to economic things. So, I have to say that the next decades may be very peaceful for America and we should take that time to repair our economy and work with other world economic powers to create an economic system which is good for everyone.

There are several assessments of the current U.S. economy and the one most average may be that "the economy isn't collapsing, but it may before long". That is an indication the economists don't exactly trust the politicians to NOT ruin it. I see it as giving us some time to make improvements. It may not be raining, but this is the time to repair the roof.

The first big economic issue is in flux because the current trade policy of Pres. Trump hasn't been resolved. The trade war is still being waged. This too shall pass.

Another major economic issue is our energy supply and distribution system. America has become a major energy producer with our oil and natural gas (which Europe would like to buy) and scientists are working hard to produce a variety of new technologies to harness and use the sun's energy and wind energy. The more we can depend upon "green" energy the more we can be free from the world's oil nations. That makes us more flexible and economically stable. Oil may have its ups and downs, but sunlight and wind seem to be steady.

That leaves one important thing to improve, how our economic system works and is regulated by government. Currently we have a very large government debt and we pay interest on that debt. We have a very low unemployment rate, but wages are not going up very fast. We have large corporations, and perhaps other financial institutions, which aren't utilizing their capital reserves in the usual aggressive commercial ways. We have universities charging exorbitant prices for education which is so essential in our current business world. And, we have the Baby Boomer generation entering retirement.

We need to utilize our computer technologies to improve our educational system. We have the computers and still children are reading paper books. We can educate the world cheaply if we want.

We need cheaper, even free, higher education or apprenticeships for our young people who will need tremendous knowledge and skills to participate in the economy of today and tomorrow. How can they afford it? Government must act in some way to make it possible.

We need a commercial world where capital is utilized in the appropriate way or it is either taxed away or required to be paid as dividends to stock-holders. Corporations do not exist for the benefit of the 1%, they are allowed, so that everyone can benefit. The distribution of wealth from corporations today is not being distributed very evenly to stockholders, bondholders, and all the employees. Thus, we need to change the rules and regulations affecting corporate executives, in order to influence or (in some extreme cases) to control their decisions about use of capital.

In order to limit price inflation it may be necessary to ensure corporations and/or government provide to families non-cash benefits such as the Affordable Care Act subsidies and regulations. If we can maintain a low unemployment rate for a sustained period of time, then we should be able to justify more benefits such as paid or unpaid days off, family leave, or vacations. Something to benefit workers and companies, such as advanced seminars and other training, can benefit and lengthen a worker's productivity and career.

Everyone wants to live in a more beautiful place, whether urban, suburban, or rural. More contributions to community improvements could be made by corporations and other organizations on behalf of their employees and for the benefit of everyone. In days-gone-by this was called corporate citizenship. We don't need to institutionalize that concept again, but we do need ways for the real economy to continue working with a good growth rate, but no destructive price inflation, while the workers benefit more and more.

While I argue we need rising wages, the group most in need has very little bargaining power, even when the unemployment rate is low. The working poor need a minimum wage increase on a more regular basis to ensure price inflation doesn't destroy families.

Our Liberal social programs such as the Veterans Administration, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps (now debit cards), Social Security, the ACA, and the like, are often in need of financial repair. If we can reduce the debt (and deficit) and make the economy work better, then we should be able to maintain those programs as necessary.

Our military shouldn't require a lot of growth, so that may be one place we can maintain size and readiness and adjust to new technologies as they arrive. We always watch for developments from other nations and there's no reason for that to change. But, we don't need to increase military spending at a very rapid pace. If worker pay is barely increasing, then we can hardly justify a rapidly growing military and defense establishment unless there is a very real problem which would deplete our forces which today are already being funded very very well.

I would typically make an argument for Civil Rights and other ways to improve our social cohesion. At this time that seems like a somewhat distant dream. All I can suggest is that leaders speak to the benefits of acceptance of others and how our diversity makes us better.

Another thing which doesn't fit any of the categories listed above is the state of our Democracy. I think there are a lot of things we can do to improve it, to adhere more closely to the moral and legal code of America. Perhaps more schools need to teach about the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. We were handed some tremendous ideas from European theorists and the Founders of the United States, pragmatic Americans that they were, turned them into something special. It has withstood the test of time and we have to recognize that, teach that to children, and continue to work to achieve its ideals.

To that end, we should use computer technology to improve our voting system; reduce gerrymandering; reduce or eliminate the criminal penalties for personal possession of marijuana; improve our Justice system fairness and reasonableness; reduce the number of situations where police officers have felt the need to use deadly force and regulate possession of handguns at least as well as we regulate the entry of terrorists into America or the privilege to drive a car on the highway. We should protect children from guns by requiring trigger locks on all guns in households with children. These are a few of the important ideas to improve the Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness of all Americans.

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