Macron and Putin: After a Bit of Reflection

Sometimes people talk past each other, even when they're trying to find a meeting of the minds. I think that's natural. Language is difficult and when people are from different cultures there is even more to consider.

I have a view of how the world's security and economic systems should work and the early reports from the Macron and Putin meeting seem to indicate Macron had his own idealistic view/goals for the long term and it overlaps my own views to a large extent. But, Putin was focused much more on the short-term issues. We all know he has a long-term vision for Russia and that vision was clarified a bit, but he was mostly focused on Syria, Iran, economic sanctions hurting Russia, and what his next step(s) should be.

My differences with Macron: I don't see the anchoring of Russia to Europe as an ideal for any time period I can imagine. I know France and Russia have always had a strong relationship, not entirely unlike their relationship with America. But, the recent past of the Soviet Union and the recent plans of Putin to establish a New Russia would seem to preclude establishing very close ties.

That is not to say we can't work toward better relations. Somewhat like the development with N. Korea, we should take small steps forward and try to establish a relationship built on real actions, agreements kept, and international Law upheld.


So, given that, let's look at Putin's goals and positions.

My differences with Putin: I haven't seen a report that he suggested he wants to pay Ukraine rent for using Croatia. Instead he has built a rather large bridge to link Russia to Croatia and (no doubt) to provide a way to supply Croatia with more military supplies. That bridge is a fragile link which a few bombs would destroy overnight. Russia would do well to establish a proper relationship with Ukraine or continue to suffer mightily for having broken international rules on conquering territory. Croatia is owned by Ukraine. Deal with that. If Putin cannot find a way to obey law, then how could anyone consider close relations with him? He doesn't allow it.

Putin has also said he wants to grow Russia and its power (in some ways that is entirely normal and to be expected). Eastern European countries need to grow stronger, so that they can withstand that force. Currently, Germany struggles along with some other European countries which have a dependence on Russian natural gas. That's an unbearable addiction which leaves them all very vulnerable. How can Putin become part of Europe when he holds it like a small bird in his hand and constantly threatens to crush it?

Putin has recently upheld Russia's position in Syria at the expense of Syrian people who die regularly at the hands of its leader Assad. Clearly Putin believes in nationalistic interests over international law. Assad needs to be removed from power and replaced with someone who will stop the killing. Putin has no interest in the larger international order and law. They use the United Nations to block the upholding of law and order. The destruction of some of Syria's chemical weapons capability was an exception to the general Russian policy. It didn't much affect Russia's interests there.

Putin has some kind of relationship with Iran and Turkey and perhaps even Israel and it isn't entirely clear their intentions, except that Israel (and particularly Netanyahu) seems to want to start a war with Iran and draw America into it. That doesn't serve anyone's interests except perhaps Israel's. It would be a disaster nearly on the scale of a World War. America should stand back and let them fight that war themselves if they want to start it. Israel has already attacked Iranians in Syria and Iranians have attacked some Israeli positions. It isn't entirely clear that Netanyahu isn't using this entirely for political purposes. He has been the subject of an investigation and he may have doubt of his domestic political support.

Turkey and Israel are in a curious position. Israel has had its long-standing friends and foes in the Middle-East, but Turkey has been shifting from a NATO member to favoring Russia and at the moment seems intent on straddling the two forces. Israel had good relations with Turkey until someone tried to kill Turkey's president Erdogan and it may have been Netanyahu. They aren't on good terms now. This and Turkey wanting to kill Kurds in Syria and Americans wanting to protect Kurds and finish off Daesch in Syria makes for a mess, a dangerous mess.


My recommendations to all these parties (in no particular order except for Turkey to leave the Kurds alone before America leaves Syria):

Turkey needs to clarify if it intends to stay in NATO or to side with Russia. I don't think it can do both at the same time.

Israel needs to oppose Iranians in Syria, but to end their plans for a wider war.

Iran needs to back off and retreat from Syria to Iran.

America should make it clear to Israel that we will not help them if they start a wider war with Iran!

Russia needs to bring Turkey and Assad to heel to stop the killing in Syria.

Turkey should leave Syria and leave the Kurds alone.

America should withdraw from Syria.

The Kurds should be given a bit of respect for their work destroying Daesch and the Iraqi government should give them more autonomy to govern themselves in a region from northeastern Syria to north-eastern Iraq (where they are already located).

That's a lot which needs to happen and many of these parties don't seem interested in doing it. Only bad things can come from this mess if the parties don't turn their interests to more peace.

Perhaps after all this killing in Syria, Assad will realize that working to help the Palestinians and Israel find peace would have been a better path.